After quarry operations are finished, the zoning for the land will become residential development with single family houses (SFDU) on 2-acre lots. Since the early 2000s I have recommended that this be changed to development with multifamily dwelling units (MFDU) clustered on the south side of the tract, and that the lake and surrounding land become a public park.
In any discussion of MFDU the issue of school children comes up, and traditional thinking is that multifamily development puts more pressure on the school system than does single family development.
Quite the opposite is true. We learned from state-wide data in the 70s, that residential developments with MFDU generate fewer students than developments with SFDU, and that the former generate more property taxes per student than the latter.
Using Bernards Township data for enrolled students in the 2004-2005 school year, and the assessed value of the homes where these students lived, I found strong evidence for three HST Rules. (HST stands for Homes, Schools, Taxes.) These follow.
Rule 1: Houses with more bedrooms tend to be home to more public school students than houses with less, other things being equal.
Rule 2: Single family houses tend to be home to more public school students than multifamily houses, other things being equal.
Rule 3: Multifamily households pay in the aggregate more school taxes per student than single family households, other things being equal.
There is an important corollary to Rule 3: In the aggregate, multifamily homes generate fiscal profits; single family homes produce fiscal losses.
The data and analysis are in a letter I submitted to the Township Committee on May 12, 2005. To review it, go to HST Rules.
I submitted a revised letter with the same data and analysis to the Planning Board during a Master Plan hearing on June 24, 2009.
Township government will be considering development of the quarry land this year. I expect to submit the HST data and analysis again at an appropriate time.
The HST rules describe relationships we learned in the 70s and confirmed for Bernards Township in 2005. We can look at these relationships again using new data for houses, schools, and taxes and the same method of analysis. I doubt that the conclusions will change.
Bill Allen 02-09-16